Overpaid Players?
Examining some multi-million dollar deals to barely draftable players
Three months ago, in an article titled “Where Is All the NIL Money Coming From?” I made the prediction that individual player revenue will exceed 50% of peak NFL or NBA player contract values. Let’s check in on that prediction!
Xavian Lee, MBB Guard transferring from Princeton to Florida
Lee averaged 17 points per game this past season for Princeton before transferring to Florida for a total deal amounting to $6 million, according to Pete Nakos of On3. The split between a brand deal with a shoe + apparel company (SPO) and cash paid by Florida isn’t clear, but the fact that Xavian Lee is the most visible athlete on their roster suggests that Serious Player Only might not be a serious payor.
Lee produced his 17 PPG not on especially good shooting percentages and did so while playing in the 13th-best conference in the country, according to NET rankings. Additionally, Lee was joined on the team by the reigning Ivy League Player of the Year, Caden Pierce, and they were bounced in the first game of their conference tournament. I watched Lee play in that game in person, where he shot 5-for-15 and delivered a mostly forgettable performance.
I searched for 2026 NBA Draft projections, and in the first and only list I found, Lee was projected to be undrafted as the 76th-best prospect. An undrafted player contract—basically a futures contract with a team and the opportunity to grind through the G League slog—will pay less than 1/10 of what he’s making at Florida.
However, there is precedent for a mid-major PG transferring to Florida and having success. Zyon Pullin transferred from UC Riverside in the Big West after averaging over 18 PPG in his final season with the Highlanders. Pullin went to Florida and posted one of the best assist-to-turnover ratios this millennium and found his way into NBA games this season after going undrafted.
The most the presumed #1 pick in the NBA Draft can make this year is ~$15.6 million. The highest-paid player in the NBA this year was Steph Curry at ~$55 million. If a college player like Xavian Lee is making millions, or another fringe draft-position prospect like Donovan Dent (projections range from #59–#85 next year) is making over $3 million on NIL alone, then we’re on our way. Of course, AJ Dybantsa has the largest reported NIL compensation + brand contract at around ~$8 million this year with BYU.
The point remains that if guys who might not even get drafted can make $3 million–$6 million, we’re certainly well on our way to seeing an individual college player make $27.5 million—the figure needed to see my prediction come true. While you can balk at that, the maximum reported player value grew about 400% year over year, and the maximum NBA salary grows at less than 10% a year. Food for thought: Under Armour founder and Maryland alum Kevin Plank is worth roughly $1.1 billion. Would a passionate Maryland alum give 2.5% of his net worth to land a crucial player for his alma mater (especially if it came with building naming rights or some other legacy perk)? YES!
Quinn Ewers, former Texas Longhorns QB drafted by the Miami Dolphins in the 7th round of the 2025 NFL Draft
The reigning national champion Ohio State Buckeyes are losing their QB Will Howard. While Howard led them to a national title, he left much to be desired—including in their regular season loss to Michigan, where he went 19-for-33 with 1 TD pass and 2 INTs at home in a rivalry game. They were willing to pay up big for Ewers, reportedly in the ballpark of roughly $8 million.
Now, what’s your legacy worth? Ewers didn’t want to leave Texas for Ohio State again (as he did when he left Southlake Carroll for OSU straight out of high school), but $8 million would have been a lot better than the 4-year, $4.33 million deal that Ewers signed with the Dolphins.
This year, QB Carson Beck is getting in the $3 million to $4 million range from Miami, as is QB Bryce Underwood from Michigan, and so is QB Darian Mensah at Duke. That’s close to double what Cam Ward made at Miami and in the ballpark of what Caleb Williams made at USC with brands and NIL money the year prior. The #1 pick in the draft, Cam Ward, is making roughly $12 million this season; Dak Prescott laughed all the way to the bank with the highest individual-year contract value in the NFL last year—around $61 million.
Back to Plank for a second. If incoming freshman QB Jackson Hamilton turns out to be a stud, could Plank pay him? What if I told you that Maryland’s offensive coordinator is Pep Hamilton—Jackson’s dad—who also happens to be a former NFL offensive coordinator for multiple teams? Paying Jackson $30 million keeps the offense intact and an elite player on your roster (and away from competitors). It could happen.
However, news released last week via The 92nd Street Y stated that Cooper Flagg made $28 million this year at Duke, which is just slightly above 50% of Steph Curry’s $55.76 million NBA max yearly contract value this past season. The NIL market is booming—even if you don’t hear loudly about it. For the right donor, in the right situation, to the right school, at the right time, it may not be long until we see even more enormous individual player NIL deals. Especially with money able to flow from donors, through the school, to players—so that donors can get the maximum goodwill (and tax-deductibility) for their gift—it may not be long until we see more $20 million or $30 million deals. Especially with the public offers already being made to fringe draft-worthy prospects like Ewers and Lee.