Big Week Upcoming for the House Settlement
Skeptics, critics, and fans alike all anticipate the House Settlement hearing next week.
Next week will mark the start of the formal hearing related to the possible approval of the House Settlement. Approval could come in the following weeks, finally providing clarity on the planned revenue sharing that the NCAA and schools have been hoping for. The fact that over $800 million is expected to be transacted by universities in the 2025-2026 academic year is reason enough to believe that the settlement will be approved. However, as history has shown, the court system is not always predictable. Whether it’s O.J. Simpson’s homicide verdict or a jury awarding a plaintiff close to $3 million for spilling McDonald’s hot coffee on herself, courts don’t always behave consistently with logic—or even precedent in some cases.
Life is mostly lived in alignment with incentives. I take action “x” to avoid punishment “y” or to gain reward “z.” Similarly, the judge presiding over the House Settlement, who has handled several other NCAA-regulated legal matters, may have various incentives to shape her decision regarding approval. From an incentive standpoint, universities would much prefer handling the receiving and distribution of funds for NIL purposes themselves rather than passing that responsibility to a third party. I say this to suggest that federal lobbyists on behalf of the universities most affected by this ruling will likely do their best to influence the court system. Whether you believe the justice system is occasionally swayed by money is your choice.
That said, many prominent individuals are already weighing in on the House Settlement. According to D1 Ticker’s recap of an ESPN article by Pete Thamel and Dan Wetzel, St. John’s MBB HC Rick Pitino criticized the House Settlement, saying, “I think it’s a flawed system before it gets started. Totally flawed.” Purdue MBB HC Matt Painter added, “We have zero trust.” Notorious Miami (FL) booster Nevin Shapiro, who claims to have spent $4 million illegally recruiting athletes to Miami before the NIL era, commented on the House Settlement, saying, “…this is not the way to regulate this…this is not practical.”
Sidenote: Shoutout to Nevin Shapiro for receiving 20 years in prison as part of a Ponzi scheme, but later receiving house arrest from Trump in 2020 and a presidential pardon from Biden. What a guy Nevin must be?!
Kansas MBB HC Bill Self took issue with one of the more controversial aspects of the settlement, the Fair Market Value scrutiny, stating, “…it’s hard to imagine how someone can [define] fair market value.” The most salient point regarding the House Settlement may have come from Purdue AD Mike Bobinski, who said, “The curse of this business is that when a new rule is put in place, people don’t say, ‘that’s what we’ll have to do.’ The first thing they say is, ‘How do we get around it? How do we bend it to our purposes or objectives? That has to change.” One of the elite and winningest active coaches in college football, Kirby Smart, expressed his concerns about the House Settlement in an On3 article: “Like, long-term, when we have to cut sports and cut other things, are the kids going to be the winners of this? I don’t know. College sports have been around for a long time and given many an opportunity, and by all means I want these kids to make money. But what’s going on right now is not good for anybody.”
I personally don’t believe that most college football coaches care about anything beyond winning games and building their personal legacy, but Kirby Smart seems just as perplexed by the situation as most others.
Many schools are revisiting their athletic department offerings. Loyola Marymount University cut six sports last year. Saint Francis University is eliminating its athletic scholarship programs, forcing any athletes who want to compete to become tuition-paying student-athletes by transitioning from Division I athletics to Division III athletics. Even a highly coveted women’s golfer at Oklahoma lost her roster spot women’s golfer at Oklahoma lost her roster spot due to the impending restrictions of the House Settlement.
The most significant impact of the House Settlement, of course, is the potential reduction in funds for players. For instance, when BYU projects to pay its entire basketball roster roughly $3.5 million through revenue sharing, how can they possibly retain a player like AJ Dybantsa, whom they are paying 2.5 times that amount alone this coming year?
As the previously mentioned ESPN article opines, “The new rules are coming. So too, perhaps, are the old ways of breaking them.”